This paper explains the basics of probabilistic analysis and design for the internal stability limit states of tensile rupture and pullout in mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls. The concepts are general and can be applied to any soil-structure interaction problem which can be expressed by a simple linear limit state performance function. The general approach considers uncertainty in the choice of nominal values and links probability of failure to the underlying accuracy of the load and resistance models that appear in each limit state equation using bias statistics. A useful closed-form solution is presented to calculate margins of safety in terms of reliability index. The formulation is easily implemented in a spreadsheet to facilitate sensitivity analysis during design and thus is an alternative approach to Monte Carlo simulation.
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